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瑞達期貨谷物周報20210910

時間:2021-09-10 16:57瀏覽次數:1083來源:本站

美國農業部將于11日凌晨發布9月份供需報告。根據20家機構分析師的預測,美國農業部可能在這份報告中將2021年美國玉米產量上調1.9億蒲,從上月預測的147.5億蒲上調到149.42億蒲。預測范圍從147.1億蒲到151.2億蒲。美玉米價格承壓下跌,進口成本降低,對國內市場影響偏空。國內農業農村部公布的農產品供需形勢分析報告顯示,玉米豐產預期較強,而需求預期有所減少,供應趨向寬松,持續壓制市場心態。同時,進口玉米以及低價谷物替代較為明顯,飼料配方并不會有明顯的改變,玉米飼用市場持續受到擠壓。另外,玉米拍賣投放仍頻繁,政策施壓調控明顯,加上新糧上市壓力漸增,以及第三方資金壓力,持糧主體騰倉出庫主動,加工企業還有玉米庫存,提價采購積極性較弱。不過,當前玉米價格水平已經接近新作種植成本,且經過長時間下跌后,空頭情緒得到喧囂,下跌幅度有所縮窄,總的來看,短期內玉米市場空頭氛圍仍占據優勢,缺乏上漲的動力。盤面上看,本周玉米期價再探新低,預計仍將偏弱運行,偏空思路對待。



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