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瑞達期貨菜籽類周報20210910

時間:2021-09-10 16:58瀏覽次數:1124來源:本站

加拿大油菜籽減產預期被市場逐步消化,且加拿大統計局報告,截止2021年7月31日,加拿大油菜籽庫存總計為180萬噸,遠高于分析師預期的120萬噸,且MPOB數據顯示8月產量增長符合預期,出口下降幅度較大,導致月末庫存增長明顯高出預期,影響偏空。另外,隨著美豆收割期臨近,市場供給端炒作漸入尾聲,新季供應壓力漸顯,且分析師預計,美國農業部將提高美國大豆產量和年末庫存的預估。不過,加拿大油菜籽減產已成定居,供應偏緊預期強烈,給市場提供底部支撐。美豆庫存仍舊偏低,且南美新季大豆可能面臨拉尼娜影響,支撐油脂高位運行。國內方面,據監測顯示,截至2021年9月6日當周,華東地區主要油廠菜油商業庫存約38.61萬噸,較上周小幅上升0.4萬噸,較上月同期增長3.21萬噸,整體仍處于過去五年同期高位。目前菜油現貨較為充足,而雙節備貨趨于結束,下游成交相對清淡,買家多以逢低補庫為主。不過,進口成本倒掛,油菜籽和菜籽油本月及下月進口量均大幅減少,對菜油價格有所支撐。關注9月11日凌晨USDA報告。盤面上看,本周菜油期價高位震蕩回落,建議菜油暫時觀望或日內交易為主。



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2021-09-30瑞達期貨菜籽類周報20210930

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